The supremacy of OpenAI’s ChatGPT has begun to develop cracks in the new year.
New traffic data, however, has shown a dramatic downturn in site visits over the past six weeks, roughly around the same time that Google’s Gemini 3 attack began.
The Numbers Are A Steep Decline
Based on recent statistics, ChatGPT has declined in traffic by 22 percent over the past six weeks.
The site’s seven day average in unique visitors has dropped from a high of about 203 million to speculative lows at around 158 million.
As a contraction, this is one of the largest in platform history, but it also leaves us wondering if the first mover advantage has now finally burned itself out against next generation opposition.
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The Gemini 3 Effect
The timing of this slump is important. The six week drop started almost the moment Google released Gemini 3, its latest frontier model.
As ChatGPT lost roughly a quarter of its traffic, Gemini has reportedly plateaued, not tumbling off a cliff, but also not climbing.
This resilience to a broader market slide suggests users are not simply leaving ChatGPT. They might be changing behavior.
Gemini, in the meantime, has continued to expand and currently accounts for approximately 40 percent of ChatGPT volume, closing the gap between it and the former industry leaders.
Holiday Slump or Structural Shift
It is still too early to tell for certain, but analysts are wary of calling it just yet.
And sometimes the decrease is attributed to a holiday slump, which is a seasonal period when academic and enterprise usage of AI tools usually declines, as students and employees take time off.
But the difference in performance weakens that theory. If this were just a seasonal downturn, then Gemini should probably have experienced a corresponding dip.
Instead, its mediocre numbers suggest that although the total pie may have temporarily contracted to a smaller size, Google is capturing a greater proportion of what remains.
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FAQs
How much has ChatGPT’s traffic dropped?
Traffic has fallen by 22% over the last six weeks, dropping from ~203 million to ~158 million average 7-day visitors.
Is this due to the holidays?
It is possible that the “holiday slump” played a role, as usage often drops during breaks. However, the fact that Gemini’s traffic remained flat while ChatGPT’s dropped suggests competitive pressure is also a major factor.
How is Gemini performing in comparison?
Gemini has remained stable during this period and has grown to be approximately 40% the size of ChatGPT in terms of traffic volume.
When did this drop start?
The decline began roughly six weeks ago, coinciding with the launch of Gemini 3.
